Evaluation of Wind Power Forecasts from the Vermont Weather Analytics Center and Identification of Improvements

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The goal of this analysis was to assess the wind power forecast accuracy of the Vermont Weather Analytics Center (VTWAC) forecast system and to identify potential improvements to the forecasts. Based on the analysis at Georgia Mountain, the following recommendations for improving forecast performance were made: 1. Resolve the significant negative forecast bias in February-March 2017 (50% underprediction on average) 2. Improve the ability of the forecast model to capture the strong diurnal cycle of wind power 3. Add ability for forecast model to assess internal wake loss, particularly at sites where strong diurnal shifts in wind direction are present. Data availability and quality limited the robustness of this forecast assessment. A more thorough analysis would be possible given a longer period of record for the data (at least one full year), detailed supervisory control and data acquisition data for each wind plant, and more detailed information on the forecast system input data and methodologies.
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Resource Characterization, Forecasting & Maps
Distributed Wind
Vermont
Technical Report
Optis, Michael [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)]; Scott, George N. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)] (ORCID:0000000279833050); Draxl, Caroline [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)]